It’s a Wrap! Q1 2024 is In the Books

It’s a wrap on the first quarter of 2024, and Compass has crunched the numbers which give us some good insights into how the real estate market is shaping up this year.

And there’s plenty of good news to report on: despite higher mortgage rates, headlines filled with news of layoffs in Silicon Valley, and stubbornly high inflation, our real estate market is doing remarkably well. In fact, the numbers show that Q1 2024 was the best quarter since interest rates jumped up two years ago.

How so? All the key metrics which describe market health have shown marked – dare I say dramatic – improvements. Check these out:

Santa Clara County

• Q1 Median Price: $1,820,000 (+14.5% vs. year-ago)
• March Days on Market: 12 (-33% vs. 18 year-ago)
• March New Listings: +21% vs. year-ago
• Listings Under Contract: +30% vs. year-ago
• March Homes Selling Over List Price: 75%
• March Sale to List Price Ratio: 107.5%
• March 1-Month Absorption Rate: 55%

Santa Cruz County

• Q1 Median Price: $1,250,000 (+4.6% vs. year-ago)
• March Days on Market: 22 (-33% vs. 33 year-ago)
• March New Listings: +59% vs. year-ago
• Listings Under Contract: +40% vs. year-ago
• March Homes Selling Over List Price: 40%
• March Sale to List Price Ratio: 99%
• March 1-Month Absorption Rate: 37%

Monterey County

• 3 Month Rolling Median Price: $860,000 (+3% vs. year-ago)
• March Days on Market: 30 (-27% vs. 41 year-ago)
• March New Listings: +25% vs. year-ago
• Listings Under Contract: +35% vs. year-ago
• March Homes Selling Over List Price: 35%
• March Sale to List Price Ratio: 98.3%
• March 1-Month Absorption Rate: 35%

Santa Clara County put in the strongest performance (as usual) of the three counties examined here. Santa Clara is the key driver of the economy across all Bay Area counties – when the market gets hot, it heats up there first, and typically to a greater degree than elsewhere.

But the strong performance in Santa Clara County in Q1 2024 bodes well for Q2 – and for Q2 in nearby counties as well.

One thing I find particularly interesting in these numbers is that while new listings are up substantially year over year, prices have also risen year over year. In other words, while homes are being listed at a much faster clip than a year ago, demand is more than strong enough to absorb these homes, to the point where overall inventory (active listings for sale) is barely growing.

This is noteworthy because normally by the beginning of Q2, we see a build-up of inventory – which grows into the summer, causing prices to dip towards the end of Q2 and into Q3 as blossoming supply exceeds demand to some degree.

Given that inventory isn’t building to the degree it typically does by this time of year, it may be that the strong spring selling season we’re currently enjoying stays that way clear into summer (when demand usually drops off due to vacations, etc.).

Are you considering making a move? If so, please feel free to contact me any time. I’d love to chat about how I can help you make your next move the best one yet.

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